India and USA: Nuclear Pact?

Posted by johnhouk on Jul 27, 2008
 John R. Houk
© July 27, 2008

It is a shame there is a hold up on what would be the beginning of a beautiful geopolitical relationship. Some time ago India and America under the negotiations of the Singh government and the Bush Administration worked out the details for sharing nuclear technology.

I don’t care what anyone says moving to a close relationship with India will be a huge geopolitical coup for both America and India.

Part of the problem is the past history between India and America.

For decades India was in the old Communist Soviet camp as buddies with weapons and technology. This was the case despite of the fact India is a Parliamentarian democracy and the Soviets were a despotic communist dictatorship bent on spreading the delusion of Marxist/Leninism.

Part of this association with the old USSR was because India’s mortal enemy Pakistan had become a buddy with America during the days America was funding the Afghan Islamist revolt in then Communist Afghanistan. (This is another classic evidence of betrayal to America after help to be delivered from Communism.) Also India and Communist China were rattling sabers over border issues as was the old USSR and China on that border. Also India had gone the nuclear route in its quest for defense against the hated enemy Pakistan and the nominal enemy China.

Thus clearly it was in the National Interest of India to be in the deceased Soviet orbit.

The times, they are a changing.

Communist super power the USSR is no more. The old Soviets have chosen a republican form of government and lost much of their Soviet Union satellites. Russia is still a viable power but it is a mere shell of its past global designs for world hegemony.

Pakistan and America are still hooked up however that partnership is becoming more and more tenuous every day as Islamism appears to be the most influential dynamic among Pakistanis and some ruling elites in the government (Constant peace accords with the Taliban and refusing to let American troops into Pakistan to track down the Taliban and al Qaeda is evidence of that).

India and China (ironically both dominated by socialistic or communistic thinking) are becoming global competitors capitalistically for global markets and thus are still not the best of friends. China is a particular nuisance for India because the Chinese government is using their no found market wealth to modernize their military and make a go for Asian hegemony as the new Russia is also trying to build a regional hegemonic sphere.

India’s special relationship to the Russians is becoming less reliable as is Pakistan’s relationship to America.

India before and since independence from the U.K. in 1948 has been at odds with the Indian Muslim population; which is why a Pakistan (E. Pakistan later became independent Bangladesh) was carved out of the Indian sub-continent. India as Israel has known Islamist terrorism against their Hindi population as Israel has against their Jewish population.

The times we live in would make India and America natural allies. What is the hold-up?

Singh’s Parliamentarian government and America’s Senate have problems with each other. The former mistrusts America in being involved in their WMD program and the latter are upset that India is not part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty and does not want to share peaceful nuclear technology that might be an enhancement to India’s WMD program. For America and India to be internationally compliant, there are a few international regulatory agencies that also must sign off on the America/India nuke pact (such as the IAEA and the Nuclear Suppliers Group).

Can Bush and Singh manage to push the pact through before their nation’s mutual upcoming elections? It would be in America’s interest for that to happen.

JRH 7/27/08
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An Uncertain Deal with India

Jayshree Bajoria
Updated: July 22, 2008
Council on Foreign Relations

The U.S.-India agreement for civilian nuclear cooperation, touted as a significant step in strategic ties, has so far proved a difficult ride for both governments. Time is running out for both President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to seal the deal before their countries go to the polls. Earlier this month, Singh finally submitted India's plan for safeguarding (PDF) its civilian nuclear facilities for review (BBC) by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). But the IAEA's approval, required before the deal can move forward, is only the first of many challenges.

The deal also requires the approval of the forty-five member Nuclear Suppliers Group and the U.S. Congress. All member countries of the suppliers group, which includes China, will have to agree to exempt India from rules prohibiting nuclear sales to countries that do not accept full-scope safeguards agreements on all of their nuclear facilities. (India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty or the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty). Experts see irony if such an exemption were to occur, as the suppliers group was created in 1974 following India's first nuclear test to restrict the spread of nuclear technology for weapons programs. Meanwhile, Singh had to reshuffle his coalition and win a trust vote (NDTV) to stay in power after Communist allies, upset over the nuclear issue, withdrew their support (Hindu) for India's government.*

President Bush has his own problems persuading Congress to pass the deal before it adjourns for the year on September 26. The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, a Washington-based nonpartisan policy organization, has asked the suppliers group and Congress not to make a hasty decision on the nuclear agreement, saying it undermines global nonproliferation efforts. Both U.S. presidential candidates Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) have indicated support for the deal, but it is not clear if they would present it to Congress in its current form.


Some analysts object to the deal because it fails to restrain India's nuclear weapons program. Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, argues in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that "fueling India's civilian reactors with foreign fuel is not all that peaceful." The Bush administration has tried to convince Congress that the enabling U.S. legislation for the nuclear deal, the Hyde Act, has mechanisms to check India's nuclear weapons ambitions. However, the Indian government is indicating the opposite. To win over its parliamentary allies, the prime minister's office insists the nuclear deal overrides the Hyde Act (Hindu). A July 15 government statement says, "the agreement will in no way impinge on our [India's] strategic programme, which is entirely outside the purview of the IAEA safeguards agreement."

Plus, India is seeking a suppliers group exemption from restrictive conditions on nuclear testing, such as those laid down by the Hyde Act. Unless the suppliers group puts similar conditions on sales to India, some experts say, New Delhi will be free to buy nuclear fuel from others without having to worry about U.S. law. While some experts tout the deal as a boon to U.S. civilian nuclear business, others say its commercial impact may be limited. The deal holds little advantage for the United States beyond symbolism, argues Leonard S. Spector, a nonproliferation expert at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. Russian and French firms are better positioned to reap the benefits of opening up nuclear sales to India, he says.

*Editor's Note: An earlier version of this report erroneously suggested that the Indian parliament has to vote on the deal. That is not a requirement.
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 India and USA: Nuclear Pact?
John R. Houk
© July 27, 2008
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An Uncertain Deal with India
Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. All Rights Reserved.

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